WS||Luke
Kapchanga
Kenya's Inteded
Nationally Determined
Contributions requires more information than presented.
Kenya submitted its Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDC) to
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ahead of the
Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris.
By the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima,
Parties are to agree what up-front information should be provided for clear,
transparent and understandable contributions.
To
start with, the Kenya INDC has no theme and does not associate the Kenyan
people with their historically and traditionally co-existence with nature.
Our cultural heritage and lifestyle practices are
closely linked to mother earth; thus mitigation efforts has to be geared towards enabling people to live
in harmony with nature by harnessing its potential for the benefit of mankind
in future.
The INDC has not set targets to lower the
emissions intensity of GDP, nor increase the share of non-fossil based power
generation capacity by a given % of installed power capacity in relation to the
baseline.
National Circumstance
Kenya is highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change, with 80% of its land mass being arid and semi-arid (ASAL) with
poor infrastructure and development challenges.
The INDCs says, Kenya’s total greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions are relatively low, standing at 73MtCo2e by 2010. Most of the GHG emissions came from
agriculture, but goes on to say that there is increase in emissions from the
energy sector.
There is no information to account for the
country’s % of world’s surface area, its population, [and] proportion of the
poor, population without access to electricity, population without access to
safe drinking water.
The average annual energy consumption in the
country recorded, and the required energy availability to propel the country
achieve industrialized middle income, and the likely negative impact associated
with consumption and production.
The GHG emissions by sector for 1994 at the
UNFCCC ,shows accounting for agriculture was 56.37%, energy 37.54%, industrial
process 4.61%, waste 1.49%, solvents
0.00% and others 0.00%.
Article 4, paragraph 1(a) and Article 12,
paragraph 1(a) of the Convention, Parties are required to provide information
on their national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of GHG.
There is an inefficient
and wasteful production system leading to unsustainable utilization of natural
resources resulting in their degradation in the country.
Further, the poor
enforcement of policies and regulations governing production and marketing
hinder economic growth and the attainment of its optimal performance.
The environment sector
has a number of challenges which include; frequent droughts, natural
disasters, acute water
shortages, climate change and variability, loss of biodiversity and poor waste
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| TWS:Nick Waigwa |
Moreover, about 88 per
cent of the country’s total surface area is comprised of ASALs while
desertification is on the rise as a result of fragility of the ecosystems.
Negative impacts on the environment have been as a result of the robust
industrial development experienced in the country over the last four decades.
This has resulted in increased waste generation leading to unsustainable waste
management practices.
With the anticipated
growth to achieve Vision 2030, the resultant development will be that of rapid
urbanization as a dominant trend, the shift will increase demand for urban
amenities such as housing, energy, transport, water and waste disposal.
The INDC should have
taken a cue from the RIO+20 Conference, which declared that, “SDGs should be
action –oriented, concise and easy to communicate and aspirational”, so that
tracking is possible.
Contribution
Kenya aims to achieve a low carbon climate
resilient development pathway, by implementing the National Climate Change
Action Plan (2013-2017).
It talks of promotion of expansion of geothermal,
solar & wind energy production and other renewable.
The INDC states that Kenya seeks to abate its
emissions by 30% by 2030, relative to Business As Usual (BAU) scenario of
143MtCo2eq.
Taking energy as a vital component of production
and growth, it would be better to know the energy intensity of the economy
decreasing or increasing in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Promotion of clean energy should be presented in
form of % increase vis fossil fuel usage. Enhancing energy efficiency has to
aim to strengthen market and a conducive regulatory policy regime, generation
capacity addition, targeting a given % of energy consumption by a given year.
The INDC is part of the accounting framework for
the post-2020 mitigation contributions, whose four key areas are ;-
understanding and accounting for non-GHG and multiple contributions; minimizing
double countin[g]; accounting for GHG impacts of actions taken in the land
sector and ; the timing of decisions on accounting issues.
So the pre-2020 period information guidance has
to;
(a) Ensure clarity and transparency
(b) Provide information on expected national
emissions levels for the post-2020,
(c) Provide information on expected national GHG
emissions reductions for the post-2020 period,
(D) Provide information on expected long-term
transformational impacts.
These availed information is to be the basis for
tracking progress in implementation of mitigation contributions and actual GHG
emissions reductions to be achieved in the post-2020.
This includes; (a) track progress towards
contributions, (b) provide information on actual national GHG emissions levels,
(c) provide information on actual national GHG emissions reductions achieved,
(d)
Provide updated information on expected long-term transformational impacts.
The INDC has a chart for information to facilitate
clarity, transparency and understanding, which provides for an implementation
framework for 2030.
But the chart lacks information compared to the
accounting for GHG framed mitigation contributions for pre-2020 upfront
information that requires that; headline number, contribution type, and time frame; base year or baseline; scope
of sectors and coverage of gases;
treatment of the land sector , and expected transfers of GHG units and/ or
mitigation outcomes.
For the post-2020 tracking what is required is
GHG inventories, accounting for emissions and removals from the land sector;
and actual International transfers of GHG units via market mechanisms or
mitigation outcomes via market approaches. Canadian artistes use satire to push for policy change
Kenya's Progress in Combating Climate Change
The country’s efforts in combating climate change
is demonstrated in having a National climate change Response Strategy (2010),
National climate change Action Plan (2013) , Climate change Bill(2014),
National Action Plan (NAP), and National climate change Framework Policy and legislation in its final
stages of enactment.
Yet the on going strategies and actions on
mitigation and adaptation, lack meaningful detail on the targeted activities.
Adaptation strategies are important for
development process. The adverse impacts of climate change on the developmental prospects, plus the widespread poverty
and over dependence on climate sensitive sectors for livelihoods calls for
immediate action.
The expenditure on programmes with critical
components have to be quantified in terms of GDP increases, and sectors
outlined clearly.
Fairness and Ambition
Kenya as a developing
country will only meet its obligations under the convention depending on the
level of support in terms of finance, technology and capacity building
available. .
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| TWS:Nick Waigwa |
The country is not alone,
most developing countries lack sufficient financial and technical capacities to
manage increasing climate risk. Climate change is costly, whatever the policy
chosen, spending less on mitigation will
mean spending more on adaptation and accepting greater damage.
Planning
These include the establishment of: A high level National Climate Change Council
chaired by the President, and Kenya Climate Fund to be a financing mechanism
for priority climate change actions and interventions approved by the Council.
As Action2015/Kenya our proposal to the senate
committee on Environment during public participation presentation of views on
the Bill, we affirmed our opposition for the president chairing the council.
Having the president to chair the National
Climate Change council is more of a political statement to woo donor funding,
but there is no mechanism to justify implementation of mitigation and
adaptation activities.
We also proposed that the bill sets aside a given
percentage of the GDP as the core source of funding of the climate fund.
Otherwise the Climate Change Bill (2014) is not
actionable, but a law to be in place to attract climate funding, whose tracking
is not neither possible nor easy.
Challenges
Adaptation finance tracking requires information
on sector, potential impacts and response activity.
Causes of climate change such as air pollution,
water pollution, waste production, pollution from fossil fuels, mining,
increase in carbon dioxide- soil erosion, extinction of species, faulty
consumption patterns, housing and food security issues and over use of
resources, have to be clear.
The price of climate induced loss and damage is
already being felt in developing countries. When damage happens, infliction is
said to be huge, with most people losing crops.
Africa’s Adaptation Gap report 2, estimates that
loss and damage will cost twice as much as adaptation across Africa.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change(IPCC), underscores that climate change exacerbates threats, making
delivering on Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), agenda more difficult because of reversing positive, trends, new
uncertainties or mounting costs of resilience.
The Road to Dignity by 2030 notes that the
threats that face us, and new opportunities that present themselves, demands a
high level of ambition and truly participatory responsive and transformational
course of action.
Developing and implementing an appropriate
national system for Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) has
challenges: - in policy tracking, national GHG inventories and air quality
measurements.
The accounting framework for post-2020 mitigation
contributions from countries calls for clear and transparent contributions;
provide information on expected national GHG emissions; reduction period, and
information on expected long-term transformational impacts.
As countries embark on MRV activities due to a
range of drivers, which include the design and evaluation of policies. It is
important to track activities of national targets, policies or projects by
civil society.
Why Accounting Matters
The 2015 agreement to be adopted at COP21 in
Paris is expected to combine nationally determined mitigation contributions
with internationally agreed elements.
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| TWS:Nick Waigwa |
Building on national GHG inventories, the
accounting framework have to provide sufficient information so that intended
mitigation contributions can be understood before 2020.
Understanding of Intended mitigation
contributions and their expected GHG, impacts is important to build mutual
trust and increase confidence that the proposed INDCs are meaningful and
equitable.
Tracking implementation of mitigation
contributions in the post 2020- will help show that parties are following
through on their intentions and enhance understanding of actual GHG emissions.
Thus this demands that, we must act now, because
what we do today determines both the climate of tomorrow and the choices that
shape our future.
We must act together, because climate change is a
crisis of the commons, and we must act differently, because we cannot plan for
the future based on the climate of the past, says the world development report
2010.
As Achim Steiner, UN Under Secretary General and
UNEP Executive Director in foreword to the Emissions Gap Report 2014, put it,
“The risks of inaction are too high to be ignored, and the effects of global warming can already be felt in many aspects of human life.Further to the Copenhagen Accord of 2009 and the Cancun agreements of 2010, over 90 countries have made voluntary pledges and commitments toward cutting their emission levels. However, despite these and related efforts, current pledges and commitments are not sufficient to keep the average rise in global temperature below 2° Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels: the associated “gap” in required emission reductions is growing, not closing. The conclusions of the report are a stark reminder that, to meet the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, consistent and decisive action is required without any further delay.”
Therefore the Kenyan INDC does not reflect the reality of the range of actions the country is planning to undertake.
It fails to enable the public to
appreciate the scale of the challenge faced by the country in its overall
planned actions/intended contributions
It has not prioritized its
intended actions, in the context of limited financial, technical and human
re-sources, and that thus there will be a different mixture or combination of
types of actions/contributions (mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, other
sustainable development), depending on the level of resources available.
It does not show the level of external resources
required if the country is to attain certain levels of actions in the various
categories of actions/contributions.
Luke Kapchanga is the Bungoma County Coordinator, Action/2015
–Kenya, SDG Implementing Committee. Get in touch with him on 0733998526 email: wanjalaluke1@gmail.com
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